02/06/2026

Solar activity was at high levels for most of the week, dominated by
Region 4366. The most notable event was an impulsive X4.2 flare from
that region on February 4. Throughout the period, Region 4366
continued to exhibit a slight reduction in area and a modest
simplification of its magnetic complexity. The remaining numbered
regions on the visible disk remained stable or in a state of slight
decay.
ÿ
Three eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery during the
period. First was a coronal mass ejection (CME) off the southeastern
limb, first observed in C2 imagery on February 4, and was likely
associated with flaring near Regions 4370 and 4371. This event was
followed by post-eruptive arcades also on February 4 at the same
location, which further confirmed the source region despite flare
activity being partially obscured by Region 4366. Modeling indicates
no Earth-directed component.
ÿ
The second was a narrow eruption to the NNW, first seen in C2
imagery on February 4. While potentially associated with the
aforementioned X4.2 event, it dissipated quickly and its analysis is
low confidence. Lastly, there was another narrow eruption noted off
the NE, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. This event was
likely a sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting
between Regions 4366 and 4367.
ÿ
There is a slight potential of minor glancing blows from these
eruptions early on February 8.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters initially reflected nominal background
conditions before showing a clear disturbance beginning February 3.
Solar wind speed remained in a slow-wind regime, gradually
increasing from about 290 km/s to a peak near 340 km/s.
ÿ
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 5, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

Solar activity has increased again, so the maximum of the 25th
eleven-year cycle continues. This time, active region No. 4366 is
primarily responsible for this. It suddenly emerged on January 30 in
the southeast of the solar disk in a simple Beta magnetic
configuration. The next day, it did not grow, but changed its
configuration to Beta-Gamma-Delta, allowing for larger solar flares.
Then, on February 1, it increased its area tenfold, while an
extremely strong proton flare was observed in it, peaking on
February 2 at 0002 UT.

Until February 4, it had further doubled in size, with the magnetic configuration remaining Beta-Gamma-Delta, while the production of
energetically significant flares continued. One to two X-class
flares and several M-class flares are recorded daily, while on
February 4, active region No. 4366 crossed the central meridian.

This further increased the likelihood of the Earth being hit by an
intensified solar wind and the occurrence of stronger geomagnetic
disturbances. Their onset was mostly predicted for February 5, with
the possibility of occurring one or two days earlier. This is what
happened, with the arrival of the CME recorded on February 4 at 1421
UT and a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic disturbance developing. It is
expected to continue until February 6 or possibly February 7. At the
same time, the production of energetically significant flares could
continue in active region No. 4366 until February 7. At the same
time, there will continue a period of slightly increased probability
of the Earth being hit by proton of solar origin. A decrease in
solar and geomagnetic activity is expected in the following days.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 7 to February 13 is 8,
8, 10, 8, 8, 5 and 20, with a mean of 9.5. Predicted Planetary K
Index is 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, and 5 with a mean of 3.1. 10.7-centimeter
flux is 125, 130, 135, 140, 135, 140, and 145, with a mean of 135.7.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/13/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels early this week. The
strongest event was an M1.4 flare observed on February 11 in Region
4366. This region also produced nine C-class flares.
ÿ
Region 4373 produced a C1.8/Sf flare on February 11. This region
displayed some minor area growth. Regions 4369 and 4371 exhibited
some minor decay. The other spotted regions remained unchanged. New
Region 4375 was numbered. A small loop structure near S22W80 erupted
around February 10.
ÿ
Around the same time, a large filament (located near N15W25) lifted
off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery. Between faint
features in disk imagery and a data gap in STEREO coronagraph
imagery, it is difficult to determine whether the filament is
superimposed over the earlier eruption or largely fell back down to
the Sun. Analysis of the coronagraph structure indicates there is no Earth-directed component. However, there is the potential for
interaction between the eruption and the co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) ahead of an anticipated high-speed stream, which may
cause the CIR to become compressed and arrive later than under
ambient conditions.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through February 14.
Probability for M-class (R1-R2) flares dropped to a slight chance on
February 14, with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares
on February 12 as Region 4366 continues to rotate behind the western
limb.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with
discrete mild disturbances likely associated with embedded transient structures. Solar wind speeds remained generally elevated, slowly
decreasing from approximately 500 km/s to 400 km/s by the end of the
reporting period.
ÿ
On February 14, the wind environment is expected to become more
enhanced late in the day due to CIR effects from a large positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coupled with
possible weak CME effects from the February 11 eruption.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 12, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The last largest sunspot group, also known as NOAA active region
4366, which suddenly appeared in the southeast of the solar disk on
January 30, has now disappeared. Until then, it was the source of a
long series of energetically significant flares. (This group could
reappear on the eastern limb of solar disk around February 23.)
Overall solar activity declined, slowly at first, and more
significantly after the setting of AR 4366.

"The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with the
exception of a disturbance on February 5 and calm days on February
8-9. Due to the absence of major and longer geomagnetic disturbances
and despite the decline in solar radiation, ionospheric propagation
conditions for short waves were mostly slightly above average.

"A slight increase in solar activity can be expected from
mid-February, meanwhile it appears that geomagnetic activity could
also increase slightly at around the same time. Until then,
ionospheric propagation conditions for short waves are likely to
remain slightly above average.

"It is not yet possible to predict whether the minor disturbances
from January 16 to 17 and, in particular, the more significant
disturbances around January 20 will recur (in the latter case, this
would be around February 16, when geomagnetic activity is likely to
increase, but probably only to an 'active' level)."

The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, https://youtu.be/BECqZ6z1yi0?si=YXv2-V23040HzMQA[1] .

Predicted Planetary A Index for February 14 to 20 is 5, 5, 15, 15,
15, 15, and 15, with a mean of 12.1.ÿ Predicated Planetary K Index
is 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 3.4.ÿ 10.7-centimeter
flux is 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 175, and 170, with a mean of 163.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/BECqZ6z1yi0?si=YXv2-V23040HzMQA
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/20/2026

Solar activity returned to low levels this past week. The strongest
event of the period was a C1.8 flare on February 17 from region
4374. This region was also responsible for a C1.4 flare on February
18. The only other flare of note was a C1.1 flare on February 17
from an unnumbered plage region near S05E85. (A plage region is a
bright, intensely hot region in the Sun's chromosphere, typically
found in active areas surrounding sunspots.)

Region 4374 exhibited minor decay through the dissipation of its
trailing spots. Regions 4375 and 4377 were largely unchanged in area
and complexity.
ÿ
A large filament eruption beyond the southwest limb was seen in SDO
and SUVI imagery starting approximately February 18. It was
associated with a Type II radio sweep that began on February 18 with
an estimated shock velocity of 310 km/s. The eruption was first
visible in coronagraph imagery on February 18, but initial analysis
indicates no Earth-directed component. Solar activity is forecast to
be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares through February 20.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a
positive polarity Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speed followed a general declining trend, decreasing from an
initial peak near 600 km/s to approximately 500 km/s by the end of
the reporting period. The solar wind environment is expected to
remain enhanced through February 20 due to continued but weakening
CH HSS influences.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 19, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity was relatively high in the first week of
February, with the number of sunspot groups on the solar disk
ranging from seven to nine. Over the next ten days, we observed an
almost uninterrupted decline, at the end of which there were only
three sunspot groups remaining on the disk.

"Significant eruptions could only occur in one of them: AR 4374.
Before it set behind the western limb of the solar disk, one of the
few more powerful eruptions was observed in it. It happened on
February 16, with the peak at 0436 UT, accompanied by a CME,
partially heading towards Earth. The arrival was expected on
February 19. Although it did so at 1501 UT, Earth only encountered
the edge of the particle cloud - and in fact, almost nothing
happened.

"Geomagnetic activity was elevated on February 15-16. The phenomenon
began with a positive phase of disturbance in the evening hours,
during which there was a noticeable improvement in shortwave
propagation conditions. A significant deterioration naturally
followed on February 16, partially also on February 17.

"Any geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of the predicted
period should be short (on 19th), while another disturbance can be
expected around February 24. Given that solar activity will be on
the rise again at that time, a positive phase of the disturbance can
be expected."

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on February 24 and 25, and on March 5 to 7 due to recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on
March 12 following a solar sector boundary crossing, then again on
March 14 with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.ÿ Barring the
potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are
expected until February 23, and then February 26 to March 4.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 21 to 27 is 5, 5, 8,
20, 20, 8, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.ÿ The Predicted Planetary K
Index is 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.1.
10.7-centimeter flux is 105, 120, 130, 135, 130, 130, and 140, with
a mean of 127.1.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/27/2026

Spaceweather.com[1] for February 27 reports about a minor CME hurling
towards Earth.

Solar activity remains at low levels due primarily to C-class flares
just beyond the SE limb near S21. The largest was a C5.3 flare on
February 25. On the visible disk, an approximate 5-degree filament
eruption was observed centered near S08W27 with an associated C2.6
flare.

The eruption was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (595 km/s) and
possibly two related coronal mass ejections (CMEs), first observed
in ST A COR2 imagery beginning on February 25. Two CMEs were
observed off the NE and E limbs in the imagery. However, SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery only showed the northerly CME. Analysis of the CMEs is in
progress.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight
chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/minor-moderate), as the
bright regions currently seen at the east limb rotate onto the
visible disk.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to show Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 530-650
km/s. Conditions are likely to return to nominal levels as High
Speed Stream activity wanes.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 26, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Between February 22 and 24, there was not a single spot on the
solar disk, which last happened less than four years ago. The
maximum of the 25th cycle is behind us, while the years 2024-2025
can be considered the years of cycle maximum.

"At the same time, the Sun is in a key phase of reversing its
magnetic field. This process is a natural part of the 11-year solar
cycle, usually occurring asymmetrically (the northern and southern
hemispheres of the Sun may reverse at slightly different times, with
the process taking several months). The magnetic field in the polar
regions of the Sun gradually weakens until it completely breaks down
and reforms with the opposite polarity.

"The next eleven-year solar minimum (the transition between the
current 25th and future 26th cycles) is expected in 2030-2031, when
the Sun's magnetic field will stabilize again and the star will
enter a quiet period. A more precise date for the minimum will only
be possible to determine at the end of the decade based on the
current development of sunspots.

"During the first week of March, solar activity should gradually
increase and then decrease in the following week. Changes in the
intensity of the solar wind will have the greatest impact on the
development of shortwave propagation conditions. For prediction of
these changes, it is recommended to monitor the position and area of
coronal holes and, in particular, solar flares that will be located
near their edges.

"This can be monitored excellently at https://www.solarham.com/[2], for example, and even professionals will confirm that you will find
everything you need here to understand the causes of ongoing events
and for operational practice. In addition, we can monitor the local
effects in the ionosphere in detail especially thanks to ionospheric
digisonde stations, dozens of which are available on the internet!"

Active periods are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm
levels, on February 28 to March 1, due to the anticipated arrival of
a CME that left the Sun on February 25.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on March 3, and then on March 6 to 8
due to anticipated influence of multiple recurrent coronal holes.

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc[3] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 28 to March 6 is 5, 5,
5, 5, 5, 15, and 15, with a mean of 7.9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K
Index is 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 2.6.
10.7-centimeter flux is 122, 122, 125, 125, 125, 125, and 130, with
a mean of 124.9.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.solarham.com/
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS